Antoine Semenyo → Arsenal FC, Dec 24 2025, Premier League (PL) winter transfer window
This report evaluates whether Antoine Semenyo represents a material improvement to Arsenal's title chances by analyzing his projected performance in seven critical upcoming fixtures. Unlike traditional season-level projections, this analysis operates at match level, accounting for current form of future teammates, specific opponents and their form, tactical contexts, and teammate interactions.
The assessment compares Semenyo's observed performances at Bournemouth against the same opponents with his simulated performances in Arsenal's system match per match, alongside the current output from Gabriel Martinelli and Leandro Trossard in identical fixtures.
These fixtures were selected as the most title-defining moments in Arsenal's remaining season. Each represents a distinct tactical and psychological challenge that will directly influence the final standings.
Matchday 19 • Current rank: 3rd
Direct title rival
Matchday 23 • Current rank: 7th
Historic rival, inconsistent form
Matchday 27 • Current rank: 14th
North London Derby - title spoiler
Matchday 28 • Current rank: 4th
London rival, top-4 competitor
Matchday 33 • Current rank: 2nd
Primary title contender (-2pts)
Matchday 34 • Current rank: 11th
Champions League chasing
Matchday 38 • Current rank: 8th
Final day - every point counts
This is not a seasonal average projection. Each match is analyzed independently based on opponent strength, tactical setup, and contextual factors. This match-by-match approach reveals performance volatility and upside that aggregated metrics cannot capture.
Matchday 19 • Direct title rival
Against Aston Villa (3rd), Semenyo's simulation shows 10-20 passes at 70-75% accuracy with >2 shots and 0.11-0.30 xG. This represents a marked improvement over Trossard's substitute appearance (41min, 0-10 passes) and Martinelli's minimal involvement (10min). The simulation projects consistent attacking output (>2 shots) as Trossard delivered in this fixture.
These visualizations show the predicted performance ranges (not averages) for Semenyo at Arsenal across all seven key fixtures on a same chart for a comparative view. The bars represent the full range of expected output.
Semenyo's simulated profile projects full 90-minute involvement across all seven fixtures, contrasting sharply with Arsenal's current rotation pattern. Martinelli averaged just 26 minutes across these matches (excluding DNP), while Trossard's involvement was more substantial but still variable (0-90 minutes). The simulation provides predictable output in critical moments where rotation has created uncertainty.
Across six of seven fixtures, Semenyo's simulation maintains shot frequency (1-2 or >2 shots) with xG consistently in the 0.01-0.30 range. This compares favorably to Martinelli's limited shot opportunities (0-2 shots across appearances) and matches Trossard's attacking intent when starting. The simulation suggests reliable goal threat even in matches where current options showed minimal offensive contribution.
The model projects passing accuracy in the 60-80% range for most fixtures—lower than Martinelli's high completion rates in limited minutes (often 80-100%) but comparable to Trossard's 0-85% range when playing extended periods. Against elite opponents (Man City), the simulation drops to minimal passing output (0-10 passes), acknowledging tactical constraints that limit wide forward involvement.
The simulation does not project uniform enhancement: against Crystal Palace, Trossard's actual 90-minute performance (20-30 passes, >2 shots, 0.11-0.30 xG) exceeded Semenyo's simulation (10-20 passes, 1-2 shots). Against Man City, both Martinelli and Trossard showed higher involvement than the conservative simulation (0-10 passes, 0.00 xG). This variance demonstrates opponent-specific modeling rather than blanket optimism.
Based on match-level contextual simulation across seven title-defining fixtures, Antoine Semenyo presents a mixed but strategically valuable option compared to Arsenal's current left wing rotation:
The transfer case rests primarily on availability and baseline attacking output rather than superior peak performance. In fixtures where Arsenal rotated or deployed current options in limited roles (Aston Villa, Man United, Chelsea), Semenyo's simulation projects materially higher involvement. In fixtures where Trossard started and performed well (Crystal Palace, Newcastle), the simulation acknowledges comparable or inferior output. This nuanced assessment—accounting for rotation patterns, opponent quality, and role uncertainty—provides decision confidence that seasonal aggregates cannot offer.
This report uses a foundational contextual performance transfer model that represents players through their surrounding context—teammates, opponents, tactical roles, and action interactions. Performance is discretized into multi-metric labels, enabling structured transfer learning across teams and competitions.
Observed performances: Premier League matchday data through MD 17 (December 2024). Simulated performances: Arsenal lineup context aggregated from 17 matches, opponent profiles from current season form. PDA: placeholder values demonstrating integration pathway.
The model operates at match level, not season level, and predicts coherent multi-metric performance profiles rather than independent continuous values. This enables reasoning about tactical fit, role adaptation, and context-dependent output variance.
This analysis demonstrates a level of contextual simulation that moves beyond seasonal projections to evaluate match-specific impact in critical fixtures. Rather than aggregate metrics across competitions, this approach isolates the seven most consequential matches in Arsenal's title race and simulates performance within those exact tactical and competitive contexts.
This report is a technical demonstration of contextual performance transfer modeling applied to a real-world transfer decision. All simulations are based on the described model architecture and real performance data through December 2025. PDA values are illustrative pending full data integration.
Interested in similar analysis for other transfer targets? The Semenyo case represents one scenario among thousands of possible transfer evaluations. This same match-level contextual framework can be applied to any player-to-team transfer question.
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